August 18, 2020 - No Fly Zones
No Fly Zones
August 18, 2020
Today saw a significant, but proportionate, spike in both cases and tests reported today. There were 1,357 cases (incl. 137 probables), an increase of 137% over yesterday’s total and 15,199 tests, an almost identical 136% increase over yesterday. The 7-day average of cases now stands at 923, a 9% increase, while the 7-day average of tests is 11,378, an 11% increase.
Since the positivity rate (8.12%) measures the relationship of cases to tests, it was barely affected by today’s data. This is the 4th straight day that Alabama’s 7-day average positivity rate has been stuck between 8% and 8.5%, strongly suggesting we have hit a plateau in our battle against this virus. Community spread is not getting better but it’s also not getting worse. Thirty-three states have better positivity rates than Alabama, according to Johns Hopkins, while 16 states are doing worse.
Meanwhile, current COVID-19 hospitalizations, net of discharges and deaths, declined slightly from 1,301 to 1,280. There were 106 hospitals reporting, the same as yesterday.
Fall classes at both Alabama and Auburn begin tomorrow. The University of Alabama has reported that only 237 returning students tested positive out of over 25,000 students tested so far under its GuideSafe program. Those students will be quarantined for 14 days before being permitted on campus. While a base positivity rate below 1% is very good news, count me skeptical that it will remain that way. A photo of large crowds of people wearing no masks outside bars in Tuscaloosa on Sorority Bid Day was …. sobering, to say the least.
Virus outbreaks at fraternities and sororities are reportedly the reason why UNC-Chapel Hill abruptly switched from on-campus instruction to all-virtual instruction just one week into the fall semester. Similar outbreaks connected with the Greek system at Berkeley, Ole Miss and Univ of Washington-Seattle have led to the same result. Fraternities and sororities have long operated as “no fly zones” for university administrators and are, therefore, breeding grounds for community spread of a highly contagious virus.
Add on top of that the commencement of SEC football games with fans (opening day: September 26). I am a huge Crimson Tide fan but you won’t find me at Bryant-Denny Stadium this year after reading the SEC’s Game Day guidelines. Read them and decide for yourself: https://www.secsports.com/article/29684002/sec-announces-fan-health-safety-guidelines
It should be noted that both Tuscaloosa and Auburn are starting the school year with low current infection levels. In fact, of the 10 most populous counties, Tuscaloosa and Lee Counties now have the lowest 14-day positivity rates by far at 4.33% and 2.46%, respectively. We will soon find out if they stay that way. The 14-day totals:
8/5 - 952
8/6 - 1,938
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
8/14 - 700
8/15 - 1,271
8/16 - 853
8/17 - 571
8/18 - 1,357
The 14-day positivity rates for the 10 most populous counties are Mobile (10.76%); Baldwin (9.91%); Calhoun (8.14%); Morgan (7.57%); Jefferson (6.37%); Montgomery (6.23%); Shelby (5.16%); Madison (4.37%); Tuscaloosa (4.33%); Lee (2.46%).