August 16, 2020 - Approaching Flu Season Amid Covid
Approaching Flu Season Amid Covid
August 16, 2020
The data continues to improve in Alabama with the report of 853 new cases (incl. 131 probables) and only 2 deaths. Our 7-day average of new cases has declined to 1,007 per day. This drop in cases coincides with a relatively robust level of testing. With over 9,000 tests reported today, the State’s new 7-day average is 11,888, topping its prior record 7-day average established on July 16. As a result, our weekly positivity rate is now 8.47%, the lowest such rate for Alabama since early June. Remarkably, 16 states had worse 7-day positivity rates than 8.47% yesterday, according to Johns Hopkins.
There are 1,291 COVID-19 hospital patients (94 hospitals reporting), an increase from 1,259 yesterday (96 hospitals reporting) but fewer than 1,326 on Friday (99 hospitals reporting). Hospitalizations generally lag new case data by several days, so this data should improve dramatically quite soon to reflect the recent decline in cases.
There is a report in the NY Times today that sounds promising. Specifically, several recent studies have suggested the likelihood of long-lasting immune responses to infection. Although these studies have not been peer-reviewed, the Times arranged for several experts to read and evaluate them. Although the Times has cautioned that these studies are far from conclusive, they are nevertheless encouraging. Several Phase 3 vaccine trials are currently underway, so the answer to the question regarding how long will immunity be effective is crucial.
There is also an encouraging report about a new rapid saliva test that was just approved by the FDA. Dr. Andy Slavitt, former head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, says that this test, which was developed jointly by the Yale School of Public Health and the NBA, could be a “major game-changer” because it will (1) be much cheaper ($10) than any existing saliva test (average-$100), (2) allow quicker turnaround time (90 samples in less than 3 hours), and (3) be more accurate (88-94% on first test; 99% accurate after 2 tests). For high-volume settings, such as schools and college/professional sports, access to frequent, cost-efficient and rapid tests is crucial.
All of this is good news, but there are potentially dark skies ahead. Health experts dread the approach of flu season and the possibility of a “twindemic”. Even a mild flu season could stagger hospitals coping with COVID-19 and leave a person simultaneously vulnerable to both viruses, which would be disastrous. As a result, the CDC is strongly urging people to get vaccinated for the flu and has ordered 9.5 million doses in addition to the 500,000 doses it normally purchases for uninsured adults.
CDC recommends that you get vaccinated sometime after 9/1 and before 10/31. So, beginning Labor Day, you should run to your nearest CVS or Walgreens. The totals:
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
8/4 - 1,041
8/5 - 952
8/6 - 1,938
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
8/14 - 700
8/15 - 1,271
8/16 - 853
No county had as many as 100 cases and 54 of Alabama’s 67 counties saw a decline in their positivity rates.