August 14, 2020 - Testing College Kids
Testing College Kids
August 14, 2020
ADPH’s data report represents a continuation of the recent downward trend in cases - 700 confirmed cases (0 probables). The 7-day average is now 1,136, a decline from 1,280 yesterday and 1,917 at its peak. There were 4 confirmed deaths and none listed as probables.
There was also an astonishing spike in the number of tests reported today - 22,370, the second highest on record for Alabama in a single day. This number caused the 7-day average for tests to rise to 10,828. This unprecedented increase in tests, combined with the decline in cases, results in a single-day positivity rate of just 3.12% and a 7-day average positivity rate of 10.49%, which is lower than 11 other states. To go from 1st in the nation to 12th in positivity rate, in just a few days, is truly a remarkable achievement - almost akin to Vandy defeating Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide.
It does not appear that the GuideSafe program (testing returning students at UA System institutions) contributed to the increase in tests reported today. In a tweet this afternoon, ADPH implied that the spike is the result of catch-up data from earlier in the week. The tweet did not mention student testing.
Local media (WBRC and CBS-42) have reported that 30,000 UA students have been tested so far and fewer than 1% have come back positive. Dr. Michael Saag said he is pleased the numbers are low so far but cautioned that “the numbers can vary and I wouldn’t hang your hat right at this moment on any particular number because every time we access a new population it could change.”
Meanwhile, current hospitalizations increased slightly, from 1,365 to 1,376. If new cases dropped as much as reported, then we should anticipate a sharp decline in hospitalizations and deaths in coming days. That would, indeed, be cause for celebration. The numbers:
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
8/4 - 1,041
8/5 - 952
8/6 - 1,938
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
8/14- 700
According to BamaTracker, 64 of the State’s 67 counties showed a decline in 14-day positivity rate (all but Walker, Fayette and Greene).