August 13, 2020 - Good Data Day
Good Data Day
August 13, 2020
It was another very good data day in Alabama. For the third consecutive day, there were fewer than 1,000 new cases - 771 today (incl. 76 probables). The 7-day average for new cases now stands at 1,280, which is a reduction of 167 from yesterday (1,447). There were also only 8 newly reported deaths (incl. 1 probable) from COVID, which is well below the 25 per day average.
For the 3rd straight day (4 of last 5 days), testing was below the 7-day average, coming in at 6,634 vs 9,606 7-day average before today. I am puzzled as to why testing would remain down at a time when the GuideSafe program testing for returning UA students is ongoing. It leads me to think the student testing must be separately accounted for somewhere. Nevertheless, although below-average testing might be cause for concern, this is more than offset by the improving case counts. Our 7-day positivity rate has fallen to 14.26% (including probables), which is the lowest it has been since July 10 when it was 14.03%. It was only 10 days ago that the positivity rate topped 21%, so this is excellent progress.
Finally, current hospitalizations continued to decline - from 1,386 yesterday to 1,365 today. UAB announced that its COVID-19 inpatient population has dropped to 97 from a peak of 124.
You may have noticed a story today by WSFA (Montgomery) regarding ADPH’s announcement that some positive COVID-19 cases are likely missing, the result of some smaller labs or private offices either being unaware of mandatory reporting requirements or not realizing their machines were not reporting data automatically. ADPH acknowledged the problem but indicated it does not believe the volume of missing positive cases is “a significant or huge amount”. We’ll see what comes of that.
Speaking of missing data, the New York Times reported today that its analysis of CDC data indicates there were more than 200,000 “excess deaths” in the U.S. between March 1 and July 25 - meaning, 200,000 more Americans died than would be expected for that period during a normal non-COVID year. We already know that 140,000 of those 200,000 deaths were directly caused by COVID-19 because that was the official count as of July 25. The CDC data suggests, however, that as many as 60,000 more Americans may have died of COVID-19 than are included in the official count.
After a tough summer in Alabama, the declining case counts and hospitalizations are arriving in the nick of time. Fall is just around the corner and, with it, comes the approach of seasonal flu. This is no time to take the pressure off, so keep telling your friends and family to wear those masks. Here are the totals:
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
8/4 - 1,041
8/5 - 952
8/6 - 1,938
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
8/13 - 771
With declining statewide cases, you would expect individual counties to follow suit, and they have. Of our 67 counties, 49 of them showed a decline in their positivity rates, including all the most populous counties. Jefferson had the most new cases with 115.