August 12, 2021
The alarm you hear in the voices of infectious disease experts like UAB’s Dr. Saag, Dr. Marrazzo and Dr. Kimberlin is attributable, in part, to the unprecedented speed with which the Delta variant is taking hold in Alabama and elsewhere. Just after the 4th of July, new daily cases in our state averaged around 120 per day. In the last 3 days, Alabama has confirmed 11,833 cases, including 4,167 more today. Our 7-day average case count is now 3,470 new cases per day, over 28 times the average daily case count just 5-6 weeks ago.
Now, there is increasing evidence, among the unvaccinated at least, that not only is Delta transmitted with breathtaking speed, but it is also potentially more deadly. In the last 3 days, 99 Alabamians have lost their lives to Covid-19, including 35 more reported this morning. In the past week alone, new daily reported deaths in Alabama have risen 162.5%. Meanwhile, 108 hospitals reported 2,441 confirmed patients, or 22.6 patients per hospital. It bears repeating that most vaccinated people who get infected by Delta are likely to have relatively mild symptoms - more than 98% of hospitalizations and over 99% of deaths are unvaccinated individuals.
Dr. David Kimberlin is the co-director of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the UAB School of Medicine and Past-President of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. He has literally written the book on pediatric infectious diseases. As an academic pediatrician with 30 years experience, Dr. Kimberlin is not prone to hyperbole, so I sit up and take notice when he says (as he did Tuesday), “I’m scared… And that’s because I see what’s coming. What is hitting us already and what is about to absolutely slam us... We don’t have a lot of time, yet we seem to be arguing about things that we already know work.”
Of course, Dr. Kimberlin was talking about masks and vaccines in the battle against Delta. “This delta variant is a new entity for us,” he said. “Our hospitals are filling up … and we have all got to buckle down and do our part. I know we’re tired. But we’ve got to do it. Otherwise, this virus will be running amok among us. We need to mask. I’m sorry about that and I wish it weren’t true. But we do. We are going to sit around and argue about all the deck chairs on the sinking boat until we all drown unless we pull together and say, alright, I don’t like it, but I’m going to put the mask on when I’m inside.”
There are some encouraging signs that this message is starting to resonate with the parents of young children. A poll just released by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 63% of all U.S. parents of children who attend school think their child’s school should require unvaccinated students and staff to wear masks.This sentiment supports a growing number of local school boards and superintendents in Florida and Texas that are pushing back against statewide mask bans, despite the threat of physical violence and harassment.
In contrast to the Governors of those states, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey and the ADPH have “strongly encouraged” masks to be worn in school, but they have left the final decision to each local school district. So far, only one-third of Alabama’s school districts have elected to follow the advice of Gov. Ivey, ADPH, the CDC, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the vast majority of infectious disease experts and pediatricians. This is what happens when decisions concerning children’s health and safety are influenced by misguided outrage and grievance instead of expertise and common sense.
Duane McGee is the Superintendent of Bibb County schools in Centreville, Alabama, a rural system with 3,243 pre-K through 12th grade students. Writing to the students’ parents to defend his Board’s decision to implement masks in school, Superintendent McGee asked this basic question:
“Are we talking about individual rights… or civic responsibilities here? I’m asking for all of our students, but especially those 1,600 or more who have no other viable defense against this virus than the mitigation strategies that these same pediatricians that we’ve trusted for these last 5-18 years are imploring us to adopt. We CAN do this! We cannot give up and quit trying and resign ourselves to a fate that we can possibly avoid! Let’s listen to our pediatricians. Let’s listen to the world renowned infectious disease doctors at UAB. Let’s listen to our hearts and our heads.” The totals:
7/29 - 2,730
7/31 - 5,414
8/1 - 1,798
8/2 - 1,705
8/3 - 3,307
8/4 - 3,399
8/5 - 3,817
8/6 - 3,685
8/7 - 3,891
8/9 - 4,877
8/10 - 3,815
8/11 - 3,851
8/12 - 4,167
August 12, 2021 - Expertise and Common Sense
All of this information and knowledge and yet concerts with thousands of people and music festivals are still scheduled and planned for this weekend in September and I am seeing unvaccinated people think they haven’t had an exposure because they were outside. People just aren’t getting the right information to make the right decisions. The silence from our health officials at the state and county levels not issuing local and state wide mandates is beyond disturbing and It now feels that they are complicit in the inevitable outcome if we don’t turn away from the iceberg. Scott Harris state health officer sounded the alarm at the boat is sinking but those in charge still refused to release the lifeboats.