August 12, 2020 - Good News, Bad News
Good News, Bad News
August 12, 2020
Today represents a mix of data that paints a muddled picture. There were 935 cases (incl. 60 probables) and 7,765 tests. The 7-day average of cases did not budge (1,447 today vs 1,449 yesterday). The 7-day average of tests dropped from around 10,000 to 9,606. This results in a 7-day average positivity rate of 16.6%, which is a slight increase over yesterday. That is better than Texas and Florida but worse than Mississippi.
Bottom line: although it’s nice to have fewer than 1,000 confirmed cases for two consecutive days, the number of tests was lower than average and the positivity rate increased slightly. The nagging question that we cannot answer is, were there really fewer cases of COVID-19 in our State, or merely fewer known cases?
The best news of the day comes from the hospitalization data: only 1,372 current statewide hospitalizations vs 1,506 yesterday. This 8.9% decline in hospitalizations is definitely a hopeful sign.
Unfortunately, the worst news of the day is the number of deaths. Alabama again exceeded its 7-day average of 25 deaths per day, reporting 35 deaths (incl. 2 probables).
All in all, I would classify today as neither a good day nor a comparatively bad day for the State of Alabama. We seem to be in a holding pattern, unsure of which direction to take. Meanwhile, in other parts of the U.S., this virus continues to be extraordinarily vexing. As the number of cases shows signs of declining, the number of deaths is clearly increasing, approaching another grim milestone that will be exceeded tomorrow - 170,000 deaths. To date, the U.S. represents 25.8% of all the world’s cases and 23.5% of all the world’s deaths.
It is just astonishing to me that our share of the world's suffering from this pandemic remains so constant and unrelenting for nearly 6 months. Here are today’s totals in Alabama:
7/29 - 1,416
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
8/4 - 1,041
8/5 - 952
8/6 - 1,938
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
8/11 - 831
8/12 - 935
Montgomery County (130) is the only county with over 100 cases today. Jefferson County saw only 97 cases, its lowest since early July. Forty-four of the State’s 67 counties realized a decline in their weekly positivity rates.