August 10, 2020 - Cautious Optimism
Cautious Optimism
August 10, 2020
It took a while for ADPH to fix its IT issues but the new data was worth waiting for. In fact, I would argue it is the most encouraging data for our State in nearly a month. Although daily cases (1,686 incl. 31 probables) actually exceeded the 7-day average (1,480), the new cases were dwarfed by a huge spike in the number of tests performed (18,124 in a single day). This represents an end to a two-week decline in testing that was fast becoming a major concern. The 7-day average for tests is now 9,380, which is the first time the daily test average has topped 9,000 in over two weeks.
As I’ve said before, the time to celebrate is when tests are increasing but cases are steady or declining. That’s what we saw today. As a result, the 7-day positivity rate now stands at 15.54%, including probables, a significant decline from our peak of 21% just eight days ago. Although the positivity rate is still way too high, it is unmistakably declining and that is very good news indeed.
I suspect that the recent spike in testing may be attributable, in part, to UA’s GuideSafe program, which has the aggressive goal to test all returning students to UA, UAB and UAH. If the GuideSafe program makes it possible to perform dramatically more testing, that alone is good news. More testing will identify more positive cases with mild symptoms or no symptoms, and that is important for reducing community spread.
It was also encouraging that the current number of statewide COVID-19 hospital patients fell from 1,595 to 1,528, a decline of 67 patients. This could mark the beginning of a good trend because most Mondays see a big jump in reported hospitalizations due to a moratorium on hospitalization reports over the weekend.
The only sad news is that there were 29 more deaths (incl. 3 probables). This number is well above the 7-day average of 18-20 deaths per day. This takes our overall death toll to just shy of 1,800. Every needless death is a tragedy. We must be vigilant and pledge to observe best practices, including masks, so this pandemic can be contained. Here are the totals:
7/27 - 1,821
7/28 - 1,251
7/29 - 1,416
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
8/1 - 1,646
8/2 - 2,095
8/3 - 1,217
8/4 - 1,041
8/5 - 952
8/6 - 1,938
8/7 - 1,709
8/8 - 1,872
8/9 - 1,161
8/10 - 1,686
There was a very strange mix of cases on the county level today. Mobile set a record with 570 cases. Clarke County, population 23,920, a small Black Belt county with only 662 cases before now, added 164 today. Which is more than all of Jefferson County (149) or Baldwin County (107) on the coast. Washington County, population 16,326, also added 52 cases, shattering its prior record.