April 8, 2021
After my last newsletter on Tuesday, Alabama witnessed 338 cases yesterday and 464 more today (incl. 168 probables). Both numbers are above the 295 per day average for the last 7 days. Although this uptick is concerning, Alabama’s weekly average of new daily cases has declined by 25%, the largest percentage drop in the nation over that time period. With 44 new daily cases per 100K population, Alabama’s rate for the last 7 days is the 2nd lowest in the nation (Arkansas’s is slightly lower at 42 per 100K). And, the best news of all is that the hospitalization rate remains very low - 3.07 patients per reporting hospital.
Alabama compares favorably to the rest of the nation. New daily cases have risen in 21 states this week compared to last week, while they have dropped in 29 states. In 6 states - Oklahoma, Maine, Nebraska, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota - the percentage increase is greater than 20%. In the Northeast, however, daily cases have tapered off this week (except in Maine). The CDC announced that the most common strain of the virus is now B.1.1.7 (U.K. variant), which is far more contagious but no more resistant to approved vaccines.
In the last week in the United States, an average of 3.03 million doses per day were administered, a 7% increase over the week before. In Alabama, an average of 29.2k doses per day were administered, a 6% increase over the week before. Alabama has administered at least one dose to 1,317,995 people, covering 33.5% of the eligible adult population and 26.9% of the State’s entire population (national average = 33.7%). At least 764,450 people have been fully vaccinated, or 15.6% of the entire population (national average = 19.9%).
When Governor Ivey extended the mask mandate for the last time on March 4, she stated that it would expire on April 9 and would not be extended. So, I wondered aloud what April 9 might look like. Well, that day has arrived, so I must ask you to indulge this amateur statistician one more time.
On most weekdays recently, Alabama has administered more than 30K doses, but it has fallen well short of that goal on weekends. Still, almost 2 million doses have been administered thus far in Alabama and 1.3 million people have received at least one dose. When that number is added to 374,016 persons who became infected over the last 6 months, a minimum of nearly 1.7 million Alabamians should now have immunities from vaccination or natural infection - i.e. 35% of the State’s entire population (including children).
To achieve herd immunity, it is commonly assumed that 70% of the total population (including children) must develop immunities and, in Alabama, that means 3.4 million people. If, as some experts believe, the infected population is 3-5 times the number of those diagnosed - either because they were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and not tested - then the actual number of people currently with immunities could be between 2.8 million and 3.5 million. If that range is discounted by 20% to account for overlap of infected people who were later vaccinated, then between 2.25 million and 2.8 million Alabamians might now have immunities. Not enough for herd immunity but close enough to reach by early summer.
One way or another, herd immunity is inevitable. Whether it is achieved through vaccination or natural infection is up to the vaccine resisters. The totals:
3/26- 442
3/27- 492
3/28- 319
3/29- 228
3/30- 361
3/31- 408
4/1 - 478
4/2 - 400
4/3 - 349
4/4 - 194
4/5 - 109
4/6 - 196
4/7 - 338
4/8 - 464