April 28, 2022
It’s time for a status report on the Covid situation in Alabama. At the moment, Alabama continues to be in relatively good shape but there are clouds on the horizon that deserve our attention.
After excluding 354 cases that were reported on April 25, but relate to tests performed before February 22, Alabama’s 7-day average of new reported cases is 178 per day, compared to 220 per day the prior week (a 19% decline). Hospitalizations have increased slightly, from 168 statewide patients last Friday to 182 patients today (8% rise). There were also 6 more recorded deaths today, for a total of 19,567 deaths overall.
Compared with much of the United States, Alabama’s good fortune is an outlier. The national 7-day average increased 33% to just over 55,000 cases per day, double the daily average earlier this month and the highest since the end of February. Yesterday, 79,572 new cases were reported nationally, the highest in a single day since February 25. While Alabama and 3 other states saw slight declines in reported cases this week, 44 states saw their daily case rates rise and 36 of those states experienced double digit increases. Moreover, 39 states (including Alabama) have watched their Covid hospitalizations increase, while only 9 states have seen them drop.
Alabama’s low infection rate cannot be attributed only to its low rate of testing. While it’s true that just 9 states had a lower per capita rate of tests performed than Alabama last week, Alabama’s 5% positivity rate was superior to all but 5 other states. Instead, I suspect the primary reason why Alabama is faring well at the moment is due to Alabama’s extremely high rate of Omicron infection last January and February. The predominant virus strains are currently Omicron sub-variants and prior infection provides significant immunity from those strains.
Officials caution, however, that data drawn from tens of thousands of blood samples indicate the limits of natural immunities. While previous infection offers temporary protection against severe disease for most people, especially when combined with vaccinations, the natural waning of antibodies and an ever-evolving virus create opportunities for reinfection.
South Africa offers a case in point on the issue of waning immunities. Authorities there believe that the country may now be entering a 5th Covid wave earlier than expected after a sustained rise in infections over the past 14 days that seems to be driven by the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-variants. Omicron was identified in South Africa in late November and swept through that country in December and January. At a briefing yesterday, South African infectious disease experts said that waning immunity from previous waves could be contributing to the earlier-than-expected resurgence in cases.
Waning natural immunity may also be responsible for the recent uptick in cases in the U.S. That is why it’s so important to stay up to date on your vaccinations. A person who is recently vaccinated is very unlikely to wind up in the hospital. In its March authorization, the CDC said people 50 and older can get an additional booster if they are at least 4 months past their previous shot. Similarly, if you are one of the many Alabamians who contracted Omicron this winter, you should not wait more than about 4 months before getting your 1st or 2nd booster.
Finally, this Sunday marks the two-year anniversary of my first Alabama Covid newsletter. That may feel like a long time, but I am inspired to leave you with this observation. The Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines were conceived, tested, produced and distributed in record time in the United States and Europe. And those vaccines have withstood the test of time, proving to be remarkably effective and safe. While this pandemic has been tragic in so many ways, we must never forget that the vaccines are a modern miracle responsible for saving millions of lives around the world. The totals:
4/18 - 968
4/19 - 270
4/20 - not reporting
4/21 - 43
4/22 - 257
4/23 - not reporting
4/24 - not reporting
4/25 - 325 (excluding 354 cases reported between 10/6/21 & 2/22/22)
4/26 - 260
4/27 - 202
4/28 - 233
4/29 - 222