April 22, 2021
New daily cases and hospitalizations in Alabama continued to climb today. ADPH reported 682 new cases (166 probables), including 233 from Mobile County. ADPH did not indicate that today’s cases include any backlog. The 7-day moving average of new daily cases is 391 per day, 24% higher than the daily average on this day last week (315 per day).
There are now 370 patients in 105 reporting hospitals, or 3.52 patients per hospital, an 11% increase over last week at this time, when there were 3.17 patients per hospital. On a per capita basis, Alabama’s hospitalization rate (9 per 100K population) remains below the national average (14 per 100K population) but the trend is certainly going in the wrong direction.
On the vaccine front, an average of 3.02 million doses per day were administered last week in the United States, a 9% decrease over the week before. In Alabama, an average of 27.4K doses per day were administered, an even larger 18% decrease over the week before. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 1,507,116 people, covering 38.3% of its 16 and older population, or just 30.7% of the State’s entire population (national average = 40.9%). At least 987,379 people have been fully vaccinated, or 20.1% of the State’s population (national average = 26.9%).
This rise in new cases, combined with the recent drop in the rate of vaccination, suggests that new creative incentives may have to be offered for vaccines. As an avid baseball fan, I found this one enticing: fully vaccinated baseball fans will be granted their own section at the Los Angeles Dodgers game this weekend against the San Diego Padres. Fans will have to show government-issued I.D. and documentation such as a vaccination card - neither masks nor social distancing will be required in the section. In order to have an impact in the Southern League, teams may have to throw in free hot dogs and beer.
According to the Washington Post, federal health authorities are leaning toward allowing the resumption of the J&J vaccine, possibly as soon as this weekend, with a warning about an extremely rare complication involving blood clots. It is reportedly unlikely that the FDA will call for age restrictions. The Post also reported the results of an analysis of 63 million medical records by data scientists, showing that reinfection by the virus is extremely rare, but not impossible. Out of about 400,000 people with positive tests for the coronavirus, only 0.4% tested positive twice in a period more than 90 days apart.
On a personal note, I have to take a short break from my newsletter due to a family obligation. I anticipate that my next letter will be published on Tuesday, May 4. In the meantime, please encourage everyone you know to get vaccinated. It’s simply the right thing to do. See you in May! The totals:
4/9 - 318
4/10- 354
4/11- 311
4/12- 172
4/13- 1,432 (including 1,150 backlog)
4/14- 349
4/15- 421
4/16- 422
4/17- 508
4/18- 270
4/19- 111
4/20- 1,443 (including 1,110 backlog)
4/21- 412
4/22- 682