April 17, 2021
Since my newsletter on Thursday, Alabama has seen a significant rise in cases and hospitalizations, while the volume of testing has remained flat. The 2-day average of new daily cases is 465 per day, including 508 cases today. One week ago at this time, the 7-day moving average for new cases was 292 per day. Today, even excluding the backlog reported on Tuesday, that 7-day moving average is 20.6% higher - 352 new cases per day.
Covid-related hospitalizations are also on the rise. Currently, there are 3.42 patients per reporting hospital, which is an 11% rise since a week ago, when the rate was 3.08 patients per hospital. The rise is even steeper for new daily Covid hospitalizations. One week ago, the 7-day moving average of new admissions was 33 per day; that 7-day moving average is now over 50% higher at 50 admissions per day.
There were also 52 more Covid deaths reported in Alabama today, bringing our overall total to 10,790. Alabama is now 13th in the nation in per capita cases and 10th in per capita deaths.
In the last week, the U.S. administered an average of 3.35 million doses per day, a 10% increase over the week before. During the same period, Alabama administered an average of 30.8K doses per day, a 1% decrease. Alabama has administered at least one dose to 1,476,162 people, covering 37.5% of those who are 16 and older, and 30.1% of the State’s entire population (national average = 39%). At least 935,377 people have been fully vaccinated, or 19.1% of the State’s entire population (national average = 24.8%). The only counties in Alabama with vaccination rates above the current national average are 6 Black Belt counties (Hale, Perry, Wilcox, Lowndes, Marengo and Bullock) as well as Jefferson County (home to Birmingham) and Shelby County, which contains many of Birmingham’s suburban communities.
If another surge comes to Alabama, as this week’s data suggest, it should not be a surprise. There are at least two factors at work. The first is vaccine resistance. On April 16, the NY Times released a study of nearly every county in the U.S, which found that willingness to receive a vaccine and actual vaccination rates are lower in counties where a majority of residents voted to re-elect former President Donald J. Trump in 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/17/us/vaccine-hesitancy-politics.html
The second factor is the B.1.1.7 variant, first found in the U.K. This highly contagious variant is largely responsible for a recent surge in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. But, just like the original strain of Covid-19, the B.1.1.7 variant does not recognize geographic boundaries … and the variant has found its way to the Deep South. In neighboring Florida, the CDC reports that over 52% of all new cases are B.1.1.7 and in Georgia, the percentage is 45%. In Tennessee, which logged 1,370 new cases yesterday, 60% of new cases are B.1.1.7, possibly the highest percentage in the nation (no data available for Alabama).
When the highly contagious U.K. variant encounters vaccine resisters, as it almost certainly will in Alabama, it will seem like deja vu all over again. The totals:
4/4 - 194
4/5 - 109
4/6 - 196
4/7 - 338
4/8 - 464
4/9 - 318
4/10- 354
4/11- 311
4/12- 172
4/13- 1,432 (including 1,150 backlog)
4/14- 349
4/15- 421
4/16- 422
4/17- 508