April 13, 2021
Today, ADPH reported 1,432 new cases, including a backlog of 1,150 cases derived from tests conducted at 2 facilities between October 22, 2020 and April 7, 2021. Without knowing the date of those backlogged positives, I cannot evaluate the relevance of them. If the entire backlog is excluded, then there were 282 new cases today, to go with 172 new cases yesterday and 311 on Sunday. That equates to an average of 255 cases per day, a 54% increase over the same 3 days last week (166 per day). In mask-free Alabama, it ain’t over until it’s over.
Alabama joins 39 other states that saw an increase in cases last week compared to the prior week. Michigan (18% increase) has received most of the negative media attention for this surge even though 13 states actually have higher percentage increases, including Texas (24% increase) whose governor falsely claimed that his state is close to herd immunity, and our own state of Alabama (59% increase), which began the week with the 2nd lowest per capita rate and ended it with the 7th lowest.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s Covid-related hospitalizations also rose 9.4% this week compared to the prior week. There are now 3.23 patients per reporting hospital, compared with less than 3 patients per hospital for most of last week. The hospitalization rate has essentially erased the gains made in hospitalizations earlier this month. Again, Alabama is joined by 31 other states that saw an increase in hospitalizations last week compared to the prior week. Michigan leads the nation with 42 hospital patients per 100K population, while Alabama has 9 patients per 100K population.
Which brings me to vaccinations. During the last week in the United States, a record high average of 3.21 million doses per day were administered, including over 4.6 million administered on April 10, the highest for any single day in the U.S. In Alabama, an average of 32.9k doses per day were administered last week, a 16% increase over the week before. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 1,407,463 people, covering 35.7% of the eligible population and 28.7% of the State’s entire population (national average = 36.8%). At least 844,353 people have been fully vaccinated, or 17.2% of the State’s population (national average = 22.7%).
Given the critical role that vaccines play in the desperate effort to tamp down the latest national surge, the decision to “pause” the distribution of the J&J vaccine feels like a critical mistake to me. To date, 6.8 million Americans have received the “one-and-done” J&J vaccine and 6 have reportedly encountered a dangerous blood-clotting reaction. Pausing distribution, though, runs a different risk: potentially reducing confidence in vaccines broadly. Granted, the J&J pause may be brief and Pfizer and Moderna have pledged to make up the difference. But, from this layman’s perspective, 6 serious reactions out of 6.8 million vaccinations do not justify suspending a vaccine that could save far more lives in the long run. The totals:
3/31- 408
4/1 - 478
4/2 - 400
4/3 - 349
4/4 - 194
4/5 - 109
4/6 - 196
4/7 - 338
4/8 - 464
4/9 - 318
4/10- 354
4/11- 311
4/12- 172
4/13- 1,432 (including 1,150 backlog)
I know the Johnson and johnson is not the one to get. I didnt trust them anyway based on the baby powder situation. What about the moderna and Pfizer has anything happened there. I know people have posted with a lot of reactions from the moderna. Also any truth to these vaccines being given in 6 month intervals.